Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
